Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 192.678194 229.935516 274.742870 333.300780 408.859805 504.552605 6.373545e+02
2025-09-07 156.417810 203.599475 267.337192 362.394328 505.462095 721.543413 1.091552e+03
2025-09-14 129.096959 177.952392 249.348304 366.288760 563.824876 907.304542 1.613306e+03
2025-09-21 112.725098 162.598128 240.248170 377.797359 634.781756 1143.619077 2.397811e+03
2025-09-28 98.293404 146.742696 225.943106 375.221997 678.205759 1349.269560 3.306674e+03
2025-10-05 92.658205 143.489659 231.071574 407.912581 802.684224 1803.723072 5.442309e+03
2025-10-12 87.022716 139.057198 232.900450 434.383869 925.572101 2346.836587 8.884296e+03
2025-10-19 81.395549 133.608675 231.576409 453.703130 1040.829106 2970.910507 1.438279e+04
2025-10-26 75.849477 127.401682 227.497040 465.643869 1143.217648 3659.834768 2.308273e+04
2025-11-02 70.296378 120.369175 220.442830 468.607212 1222.183717 4356.123443 3.619213e+04
2025-11-09 64.374134 111.859722 208.894792 457.430616 1252.426289 4884.796800 5.243957e+04
2025-11-16 59.193685 104.209750 198.044275 445.523064 1276.096706 5428.919543 7.657225e+04
2025-11-23 54.346435 96.882348 187.263110 432.545342 1296.056102 6034.208903 1.166835e+05
2025-11-30 53.453675 97.549765 194.693754 473.187074 1550.556736 8727.561715 3.783931e+05
2025-12-07 50.507468 93.540619 190.540472 478.643343 1665.449935 10740.756274 9.913306e+05
2025-12-14 48.418647 91.125309 189.845196 494.878743 1845.263007 14058.544967 4.675600e+06
2025-12-21 45.565811 86.720622 183.546088 491.239240 1926.667144 16702.195555 2.580784e+07
2025-12-28 45.155638 87.715970 191.156299 537.609683 2325.912460 26432.574007 NaN
2026-01-04 44.292105 87.568306 195.763587 575.442592 2726.810989 40946.018954 NaN
2026-01-11 43.056885 86.407875 197.440173 603.208499 3103.922187 61649.034225 NaN
2026-01-18 41.539900 84.411228 196.469764 620.433506 3434.100687 89658.826893 NaN
2026-01-25 39.744911 81.561498 192.635714 624.715666 3672.440967 122819.515517 NaN
2026-02-01 37.521925 77.462055 184.600871 608.580384 3716.086870 146997.996433 NaN